At the time of writing, the war against Iran propagated by Israel and the United States has spanned just over 3 weeks. For now, the war has taken the sole form of missile combat both offensively and defensively, although American ground assets are being repositioned in the region. American-Israeli goals for this operation are clearly stated: enact regime change in Iran, and prevent them from obtaining a nuclear weapon. This, in my eyes, is only a fraction of the truth.
I firstly find it incredibly difficult to believe that nations sufficiently concerned with the Iranian regime as to spend a combined $26bn+ would conduct their manner of ‘regime change’ in such a fashion. The West has learnt or, at the very least, should have learnt from the blood soaked lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, that meaningful regime change cannot be brought about by bombing a nation into submission – especially without at least a ground aspect to their attacks.
There is already evidence to support such a conclusion through the lens of this war. At the death of Ali Khamenei to an Israeli airstrike, a new leader, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was almost instantly appointed. He has been in hiding while the CIA and Mossad try desperately to locate him. His absence has proven that the Iranian regime operates despite a visible leader, and that when you cut the head off of the serpent, another one grows. All that foreign strikes are doing is strengthening the resentment of Iranians towards the West, and ensuring whomever they vote into power next will take a hardline stance against us. Iranians will understandably not be quick to forgive those who conduct air strikes against their homes, schools and workplaces.
Secondly, Israel has been ‘warning’ us of Iran’s nuclear weapon progress for at least 30 years, with constant statements designed to evoke shock and worry that Iran may be ‘days or weeks’ away from succeeding in the creation of a nuclear weapon and blowing up the entire world. Experts have consistently disagreed. “There was no evidence that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon,” says Jeffrey Lewis from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. His comments are supported by a wealth of other experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as internal American intelligence reports into the subject from last year. Paired with the confirmed lies told about Iraq and Afghanistan, it is incredibly difficult to trust the given justification for this conflict. In this way, the title of this article is a two-for-one; the war flies in the face of our intelligence reports of Iran, as well as insulting our intelligence as people capable of critical thought and seeing past the rather poorly orchestrated cover story.
The stubborn failure to learn from past mistakes signals that American-Israeli intentions are not what they report themselves to be. Neither of these nations are inept, and they certainly possess the capability required to tackle regime change and nuclear weapon prevention properly should they so choose. Instead, I suspect that the strikes against Iran serve a different purpose almost entirely. While we may never know the true reasons for this war, I believe a more likely tale is that Israel has long wanted Iran’s regime destroyed, as one of the only nations in the region who posed a threat to Israel and their expansionist tendencies. Although the entirety of the land which Israel finds itself on is already questionably acquired, modern examples of further Israeli expansionism such as Golan Heights in Syria or South Lebanon reinforce this case. Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in domestic political turmoil, over his constant corruption allegations and his government’s handling of October 7th and the ensuing genocide. A fresh war is a way to justify his retention of power. Further, I think it is no coincidence that just as Trump faced massive backlash for his proven involvement in the Jeffery Epstein case, the first bombs landed on Iranian soil and took over the news headlines. All of which entirely without congressional notification, much less approval.
Warfare in the Middle East to serve ulterior motives has been a constant throughout my entire lifetime so far in some form or another, although I had thought it largely a thing of the past by the conclusion of ISAF operations in Afghanistan in 2021 with Operation Pitting. It should be noted I am certainly not opposed to the toppling of the Iranian regime, who are responsible for countless crimes in war and against humanity. I am, however, in disagreement over their nuclear capability, and opposed to fighting another war in the Middle East to the benefit of Israel and Trump’s name at grave human and economic cost. It would appear that, at least for now, European and other allied nations are thinking similarly.
